New Japan Pro Wrestling’s G1 Climax 30 will continue with its third to to last block card of the tournament on October 14th in the first NJPW event from the new Yokohama Budokan. The beautiful new venue will play host to to the B Block as they battle through their 8th card of the tournament. Unlike the A Block’s four wrestlers locked at the top of the block through 7 matches, only two wrestlers have reached 10 points at the same point in the B Block. EVIL and Tetsuya Naito are tied at 10 points at the top of the block with EVIL holding the clear and definitive tiebreaker. Three more wrestlers are still very much in the hunt as SANADA, Zack Sabre Jr., and Hirooki Goto all sit at 8 points. Four more wrestlers sit at 6 points, technically able to tie the block leaders at 10, but based on all of the tiebreaker scenarios that we’ve run, the only wrestler at 6 points who can possibly win the block is KENTA, so he is still alive with the slimmest of chances (so slim I left his “E” in his Elimination # column).
- In the first block match of the night, KENTA faces off with the already eliminated YOSHI-HASHI. If KENTA loses he is eliminated. If KENTA wins, he’ll need Zack Sabre Jr. to defeat Juice Robinson, Toru Yano to defeat Tetsuya Naito, Hirooki Goto to defeat EVIL, and Hiroshi Tanahashi to defeat SANADA to stay alive. KENTA would then need to defeat Tetsuya Naito in his last block match on Saturday along with another very particular set of results that lands the block in a tie at 10 points with everyone but Juice Robinson and YOSHI-HASHI in an 8 way tie at the end of block competition. In this scenario, KENTA would then win three levels of head-to-head tiebreakers and he’d have the longest and most complicated claim to a block victory in G1 Climax history. Like I said, the slimmest of chances.
- The second block match of the evening features Zack Sabre Jr. entering at 8 points, still very much alive, facing Juice Robinson at 6 points who is effectively eliminated via his four losses to wrestlers with 6 or more points making his ability to win a large tiebreaker essentially impossible. Regardless of Zack Sabre Jr’s result, if Tetsuya Naito wins, Zack Sabre Jr is eliminated. Zack Sabre Jr would also be eliminated with a loss plus EVIL or Tetsuya Naito gaining a single point (draw or win).
- The middle block match of the night, Toru Yano, coming in with 6 points, will face IWGP Heavyweight and Intercontinental Champion, Tetsuya Naito who enters with 10 points. Toru Yano is effectively eliminated via his four losses to wrestlers with 6 or more points, making his ability to win a large tiebreaker essentially impossible. Tetsuya Naito could be eliminated tonight with a loss to Toru Yano paired with an EVIL victory. A Naito victory leaves Zack Sabre Jr. and Hirooki Goto Eliminated.
- The semi-main event will have a resurgent Hirooki Goto entering with 8 points against block leader, EVIL entering at 10 points. EVIL is the only wrester on the card tonight who can not be eliminated. Goto, on the other hand needs to win or his tournament will go forward with no chance of block victory. Even if Goto wins, if Naito is successful in the match prior, Goto will be very much a long shot, dependent on multi-person tiebreaker scenarios to give him a chance.
- The Main Event will feature Hiroshi Tanahashi and SANADA. Tanahashi is effectively eliminated, as the best he could do is tie block leaders, EVIL and Tetsuya Naito, but SANADA enters with a chance to land himself at 10 points with a tiebreaker over Tetsuya Naito and a chance to establish a tiebreaker in his final block match against EVIL at Ryogoku. Simply put, if SANADA wins, he is still alive. A SANADA loss paired with an EVIL or Tetsuya Naito win, he is eliminated. SANADA will benefit from knowing his stakes entering the main event, as Naito and EVIL will wrestle before him.
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G1 Climax Night 16 Audio Preview
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Date: October 14th, 2020
Venue: Yokohama Budokan
Time: 6:30pm JST
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G1 CLIMAX 30: A BLOCK RESULTS TO DATE
SPORT OF PRO WRESTLING BOX SCORE
BLOCK TABLE
Key Tiebreakers
EVIL [10]: Tetsuya Naito [10]
Tetsuya Naito [10]: Hirooki Goto [8], Zack Sabre Jr. [8]
SANADA [8]: Tesuya Naito [10], Zack Sabre Jr. [8]
Zack Sabre Jr. [8]: EVIL [10], Hirooki Goto [8]
Hirooki Goto [8]: SANADA [8]
Weighted Block Win Probability (wBWP)
wBWP is a weighted combination of Points, Max Points, Tiebreaker Values, Efficiency Metrics, Remaining Opponents, Elimination #, and Streak.
- EVIL’s 35.91% wBWP represents the highest in the block. EVIL, of course, is tied with Tetsuya Naito with the most points, and he also benefits from his huge tiebreaker over Naito at the top of the block. Of this group, only Zack Sabre Jr. owns the tiebreaker over EVIL
- Tetsuya Naito comes in with a 23.88% chance of winning the block. His 10 points are tied for most in the block and he also benefits from the easiest strength of schedule going forward. Naito’s near 3 hours of total match length represent an inefficiency that drags him down, but his losses to SANADA and EVIL are the largest factors to his 12% deficit behind EVIL.
- SANADA is the highest rated among the 8 point group. He has the highest Tiebreaker Factor with Naito and Zack Sabre Jr., and he also has momentum on his side, he is currently on a four match winning streak.
- Zack Sabre Jr. has been the most efficient wrestler in this group, with the lowest Average Winning Match Length and the best Win/Loss Differential. Both Naito and SANADA holding tiebreakers over him works against him though.
- Goto has the lowest probability to win the block of this group. He only holds a tiebreaker over SANADA and he appears on both Naito and Zack Sabre Jr’s Key Tiebreakers list.
G1 CLIMAX B BLOCK MATCH
Hiroshi Tanahashi [6] Vs. SANADA [8]
G1 CLIMAX 30 – TOURNAMENT TO DATE
- Hiroshi Tanahashi has quietly amassed the second most Total Match Length in the B Block: 2 hours, 4 minutes, and 45 seconds already in this tournament.
- Tanahashi’s first match of the tournament is the 11th longest G1 Climax match ever with a decision rendered. That is not Tanahashi’s longest G1 match ever though, his 27 minute and 56 second victory over AJ Styles in 2015 holds that honor.
G1 CLIMAX HISTORY
- Hiroshi Tanahashi will likely remain at the top of the G1 Climax wins list for many years to come, currently at 86. Hirooki Goto and Tetsuya Naito are the next closest active G1 competitors with 59 wins each. Kazuchika Okada is slightly behind them with 55.
2020 RESULTS
- In terms of records, Tanahashi and SANADA have both had disappointing singles runs in 2020. SANADA Just squeaked himself over the .500 mark, he is now 8-7. Tanahashi, at 4-6, may need to find his “Ace Energy” to continue to be a major factor in the NJPW heavyweight division.
HEAD TO HEAD HISTORY
- Tanahashi and SANADA have traded victories in four matches since 2016, they are 2-2 against each other. They are also 1-1 in the G1 with SANADA winning their first G1 match in 2016, but Tanahashi winning their second in 2019.
G1 CLIMAX B BLOCK MATCH
Hirooki Goto [8] Vs. EVIL [10]
G1 CLIMAX 30 – TOURNAMENT TO DATE
- EVIL’s four match winning streak is the highest in the tournament, tied with Kazuchika Okada and SANADA.
- EVIL has labored through his victories and he has lost relatively quickly. His (-8:47) Win/Loss differential is the worst in the tournament by far with SANADA’s (-6:11) the next worst. That may be a strategy though, if EVIL doesn’t see a clear path towards victory, he may be likely to give up in favor of saving his energy for his next match.
G1 CLIMAX HISTORY
- EVIL has quietly been a very strong G1 Competitor. EVIL has averaged 9.5 points in his previous 5 G1s and he has already surpassed that this year.
- EVIL’s 24 G1 victories since entering the tournament in 2016 are fourth in that timeframe, behind only Tetsuya Naito (30), Kazuchika Okada (29), and Hiroshi Tanahashi (26).
- Hirooki Goto sits right behind EVIL in that same category with 23 victories.
2020 RESULTS
- With a win tonight, EVIL would tie Kazuchika Okada for the most singles victories in NJPW in 2020 with 13.
HEAD TO HEAD HISTORY
- EVIL and Hirooki Goto have met five times dating back to 2015. Goto leads the series between them 3-2. They’ve never met in the G1, but they have wrestled each other on many other big NJPW stages, including Power Struggle, Wrestling Dontaku, Dominion, New Beginning in Osaka, and this year’s New Japan Cup.
- Goto looks to avenge his loss in this year’s New Japan Cup with a victory over the now former IWGP Heavyweight and Intercontinental Champion.
G1 CLIMAX B BLOCK MATCH
Toru Yano [6] Vs. Tetsuya Naito [10]
G1 CLIMAX 30 – TOURNAMENT TO DATE
- Tetsuya Naito may be exhausted at this point in the tournament. He has two matches left, but with just 10 minutes and 47 seconds more in this tournament, Tetsuya Naito will break the record for the highest Total Match Length in a single G1 Climax. Fortunately for his stamina, Naito faces Toru Yano, whose matches have averaged just 6 minutes and 37 seconds this tournament.
G1 CLIMAX HISTORY
- Tetsuya Naito’s 30 G1 Climax victories in the last 5 tournaments are the most over that time period. His 56 over the last 10 tournaments are second only to Hiroshi Tanahashi (57).
- Toru Yano is in danger of tying Yuji Nagata and Hiroyoshi Tenzan for the most all-time G1 losses. If Yano loses his last two matches, he will join them at 67.
2020 RESULTS
- Tetsuya Naito’s 29:01 Average Match Length in 2020 is still more than 10 minutes higher than his 18:43 average from 2019. Naito is likely hoping his match with Yano will knock some time off of that.
- Toru Yano’s 6:29 Average Winning Match Length is the shortest in NJPW in 2020.
HEAD TO HEAD HISTORY
- Toru Yano and Tetsuya Naito have faced each other 9 times dating back to 2010, with Naito leading the all-time series 6-3. Eight of their matches have happened during the G1 Climax. Naito leads the G1 series 5-3.
- Yano’s victory over Naito in last year’s tournament broke a Tetsuya Naito’s 5 match winning streak against Yano in their all-time series.
- The likelihood of Naito breaking the Total Match Length Record tonight is slim, Naito and Yano haven’t crossed the 10 minute threshold since 2011, and their 9 matches all-time have averaged just 7 minutes and 55 seconds.
G1 CLIMAX B BLOCK MATCH
Juice Robinson [6] Vs. Zack Sabre Jr [8]
G1 CLIMAX 30 – TOURNAMENT TO DATE
- Zack Sabre Jr.’s 19 minute and 35 second Average Losing Match Length is second longest in the B Block, only shorter than Tetsuya Naito’s 25 minute and 33 seconds.
G1 CLIMAX HISTORY
2020 RESULTS
HEAD TO HEAD HISTORY
- Zack Sabre Jr. and Juice Robinson have met twice in singles matches. Once in the First round of the inaugural IWGP United States Title Tournament, and once in the 2018 G1. Zack Sabre Jr. was victorious both times.
G1 CLIMAX B BLOCK MATCH
YOSHI-HASHI [2] Vs. KENTA [6]
G1 CLIMAX 30 – TOURNAMENT TO DATE
- YOSHI-HASHI’s 4 match losing streak is the longest in the B Block, tied with Toru Yano.
- YOSHI-HASHI may not have been able to complete many victories, but he has had his most competitive tournament yet. His 17 minute and 25 second Average Losing Match Length is three minutes longer than his previous high from 2017.
G1 CLIMAX HISTORY
- Based on the Sport of Pro Wrestling Ranking System, YOSHI-HASHI is the worst G1 Climax competitor of all time. The SoPW ranking system does weight recency, so there may be a little bit of a recency bias there, but his one-win showing during this tournament has certainly not helped his cause.
2020 RESULTS
HEAD TO HEAD HISTORY
Sport of Pro Wrestling Podcast
G1 Climax Night 16 Audio Preview (YouTube)
You can find my complete statistical breakdown for every competitor in this year’s G1 Climax here, I have interactive, sortable tables for NJPW’s 2020, detailed results and statistics of all 1500+ G1 Climax matches to date, as well as a full boxscore for This Year’s Tournament at SportOfProWrestling.com, and you can let me know what you find when you drill down by dropping me a line on Twitter @TheChrisSamsa.
G1 Climax 30 Official (“Unofficial”) C Block
Your bonus for making it to this point in the preview, weaving yourself through all of hair-brained B Block scenarios, or just scrolling all the way to the bottom of this post is your Official Sport of Pro Wrestling, C-Block Statistics Update. Uemura is the front runner now with the highest points and the highest max points. Kidd needs a win in his next match to really stay in the hunt.
The opening match on this card will be Yota Tsuji vs. Yuya Uemura in their 40th ever one-on-one encounter.